July 16, 2019

It is July and we are now a bit over halfway through 2019.  This has been a good year for the economy and the markets.  As of July 15^th, the S&P 500 is up 21.5%, the Dow Jones is up 18.6% and the NASDAQ is up 24.9%.  We need years like this to counterbalance the dismal 2018.  The 1-year trailing results are less eye-popping: S&P 500 up 9.89%, DJIA up 12.27% and the NASDAQ is positive 6.53%.  Good enough—not trade in the Rambler for a Benz great–but good enough.

Just think if you were one of those poor investors that packed it in after that terrible fourth quarter of 2018.  There were many across the country that did just that—people who couldn’t handle the volatility.  They missed out on the fabulous recovery due to short term gyrations.

This is why we stay invested through thick and thin.  Every downturn we humans have a tendency to think that this time it is different.  The markets will not come back and this is the end of prosperity.  That thought pattern is as natural as it is wrong.  We are designed (through natural selection over hundreds of generations) to see patterns and trends in our everyday lives.  It is a survival tactic that the winners in the game of life passed on to their children through the eons. Read More

June 12, 2019

The last quarter of 2018 was not very good in the US Markets.  It was, in fact, the worst fourth quarter since 2008 and the worst Christmas Eve ever.  And the financial media was in a frenzy.  Finally, they were right.  It had taken years but for once, the perma-bears were right.  Hallelujah, hallelujah; their ratings were going to be great!  Nouriel Roubini’s phone must have been burning up.

Just FYI, Nouriel Roubini is a Professor of Economics and International Business of Leonard N. Stern School of Business.  His nickname is Dr. Doom if that gives you a clue.  On March 20, 2017, he opined that the markets were “overestimating the positives of the US-Trump policies.[i]”  March 2017 the S&P 500 stood at 2,378.  Today the S&P opened at 2,890 (about 17% higher.)  My guess is that more people have lost more money due to Dr. Doom’s predictions than anyone in the history of financial mass-media. Read More

May 15, 2019

There a couple of things most everyone needs when they are starting out and growing a family and buying a house—a Will and Life insurance.  It is surprising how many people don’t have either one.  So this month lets talk a bit about both.

A Will is probably the thing I find missing the most.  First of all, Wills are fairly specific to the State you live in.  A Maryland will doesn’t always work if you move to Delaware or Florida.  So update your will when you change States.

In Maryland, more than likely all you ever really need is a will.  Each County has an elected Register of Wills,  The staff of the Register of Wills is very good at helping your executor fulfill your wishes outlined in your will.  As in all things legal, certain procedures must take place and the staff will guide you through the process. Read More

March 19, 2019

On March 2, 2009, just over ten years ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 6,626, the S&P500 was around 700 and the NASDAQ closed around 1,293.  In 2009 I had been an advisor for about 4 years and oh how I longed to be a State Trooper again!  I had in fact just completed my purchase of Chesapeake Investment Advisors so there was no turning back.

I remember walking across the quadrangle in Chestertown toward my favorite lunch spot (The Old Mill Deli) thinking how easier my life was with the Maryland State Police.  Of course, I wasn’t working the road at the end of my career—I was a Captain and Captains don’t put their lives in jeopardy as Road Troopers do.  Captains are Admin and for the most part, do very boring stuff.

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February 12, 2019

Well we are off to a great start to 2019.  Here are the numbers:

Index                    January 2 Open                                 February 12 Close            Difference

DJIA                       23,223                                                   25,425                                   +2,202

S&P 500                  2,496                                                   2,744                                    + 248

NASDAQ                6,622                                                   7,414                                    + 792

In this morning’s news it appears the Government Shutdown II has been averted.  Next up will be a resolution of the China trade disagreement.  These two events should remove some uncertainty in the markets and we all know how Markets abhor uncertainty.

But Stein’s[i] law, “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop” gave us confidence this round of the Government shutdown would be resolved.  The same with the China Trade dispute.  The two largest economies in the world cannot and will not continue to cut each other’s economic throats—there is simply too much to gain by not doing so.  It cannot go on forever and it will stop.  I for one, think sooner rather than later.

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January 16, 2019

Welcome to our first newsletter of 2019.  While I would not want to wish my life away, I am glad to put 2018 in the rear-view mirror.  Leaving December was like finally getting around that slow-moving truck you’ve been stuck behind for the last 10 miles.

As far as markets go, Decembers are a bit strange anyway.  Advisors around the country are selling losers for tax-loss harvesting.  Mutual Funds and ETF’s must declare and pay-out their Capital Gains in December which increases cash balances but MF fund balances fall.  Then lastly, no advisor or institutional investor really wants to reach down to buy any position in December that had negative issues during the year.  (They know the position will appear on the December statement and there is little reason to create more investor consternation in an already poor year.  This is window dressing in reverse.)

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December 24, 2018

I can safely say that the year 2018 will not make the Hall of Fame for Investment years.  The year has had its times of greatness followed by some serious bouts of negativity.  And as I write this it is readily apparent that there will be no Santa Claus rally.  Nothing but coal in our stocking this year.  We started 2018 in a sprint and by February we were spent.  To put it nicely, it has been a frustrating year.

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